Hey, this is Sasha Evdakov, and welcome to another episode of let’s talk stocks, episode number 92, and in this episode, we’re going to go into the basics, or the fundamentals, or the foundation of technical analysis, support, and resistance.
If you’ve been with me for a while, if you’re more intermediate or even advanced I’m going to try still to give you some more knowledge and insight to take that learning education and knowledge to a deeper level.
The four levels of competency
When we look at knowledge and information and education, there’s always a deeper level. And as far as the four levels of competencies go, there are four different levels, and that is unconscious incompetence. Conscious incompetence. Conscious Competence. And unconscious competence.
If this doesn’t make sense at all right now, and if you’re a little more international and English is your second language, then you can substitute unconsciousness for more awareness or not awareness. Competence would be more knowledge, your knowledge or your smarts or your understanding. So you could replace it for that, and if I was to give you a driving example, you go from stage 1 to 2, to 3, to 4, this is the way that things work in your understanding, in your knowledge, in your competencies, and your awareness.
I’ve covered this in more detail in my accelerate your stock trading education course, which is the light green course, if you want to take a look at that, we go more in depth about this.
But just o touch base about this. Unconscious incompetence is really that you’re not aware that you’re still not knowledgeable. You might think that things are easy, you’re just not aware of the knowledge that’s required.
Conscious incompetence, now you become aware that you are not knowledgeable, so if you’re driving a car, once you start getting behind the wheel, you’re now aware that you don’t have the appropriate knowledge or understanding to operate, you need more practice.
Then once you get to level number 3, conscious competence, now you get into that stage if you’re aware, but you’re also knowledgeable, but you have to think about it. So if you’re driving a car, you can now drive a car, and you’re fine with that, but you have to think about it, you have to focus.
And then when you get to level 4, unconscious competence, now you’re unaware, you don’t have to concentrate as much, but you can still drive, complete the task and not think, that’s why many people by the time they drive, they’re talking on the phone, they’re eating, they’re listening to music, whatever that might be.
This applies to anything that you do in life, anything that you learn, anything that you’re looking to accomplish, and of course, this applies to stock trading as well. Now, these are the four stages of competency, and if you want to look it up, it’s just a necessary kind of learning hierarchy of competency.
The 5th level
For me, I like to look at this as another level, level 5, and for me, this goes back to level one. So, even if you’re fully competent and you can entirely do something unconscious without thinking about it, you take yourself back to the unconscious incompetence level, pretend as if you don’t know anything and start from the basics.
Because now that you’re aware and you’re understanding things, it allows you to take things even to a deeper level, to take that learning and education to that more profound level, and that’s what I’d like for you to do in this lesson as we go into the basics of support and resistance.
I want you to take that to a deeper level even if you believe you understand it. So that’s what we’re going to cover, support and resistance, throughout the days, weeks and months, giving you some insight to support and resistance.
Before we get into the lesson, a quick little insight about the course that I’m working on, wrapping up this options mastery course, there’s a lot of videos, and if you can see all the modules here that I have, I’ve been recording this for probably a good 6 – 7 months, maybe half year or more, almost a full year. You can see some of the dates here, and we’re actually in January.
This course is starting to wrap up, most of that course is getting wrapped up, just in the footage that’s already edited, we have 50 hours complete. I recorded some more videos today, which you can see by the time stamp right there, I recorded some the other week as well, just June 28th, and only in this area as well, we have about 20 hours of footage that we still need to edit, so together I have about 70 hours of footage, so that’s going to be about 70 DVDs or 70 hours or so of training, and again, I don’t understand how many of the options courses can teach just one hour of options and really make it worthwhile, but I’ve really put a lot of work into this course to make it as in-depth as I possibly could to really give you excellent core knowledge and understanding to take you to that next level.
So that you can review these videos time and time again, and it’s taken me most of the year to work on this material, and of course I’ve done little books and other projects here and there, but this is the core, this is what I’ve been working on, and in terms of video material, we’re up to about 70 hours right there as you can see on this course, and I hope to finalize the editing here, which we have to still do on these videos, and once that’s done, after the manufacturing, the study guides that we have to make and print, then it’ll be available, so I would guess about 2 months, give or take, just because of manufacturing time, 2 months would be a safe bet. It’s where it’s a rough estimate to where it would be out.
And we’ll probably break it apart into multiple courses, that way you can just take it in stages and you’re not rushing to it too quickly, but there’s a lot of material here as you can see, and it’s definitely long in the sense of very in-depth knowledge step by step, so keep your eyes on that, and get on the newsletter, if you want to be notified, where it is released.
To get into our support and resistance trading, to get into our understanding of our fundamentals, this is actually, by the way, what you’re looking at here is a paper trading account that we are using for the course, so you can see some of those positions are right there, which is what you will be learning, is how to manage these kind of positions and how to manage these types of trades.
Support and resistance
But in either case, looking at the overall market, as we look at some charts, what we’re going to do is first break apart just the SPY and look at support and resistance. And for those of you that already know and understand some basics behind support and resistance, support is basically where the stock is bouncing; it’s where the stock is being supported.
Think of it as a floor, so you can see that it happens at these levels and the stock changes direction and then it’ll bounce.
You also have other support levels that may be a little bit tougher to see or read for example right here, because this one we broke down below it and again, we got above it. So in simple terms, support is where that stock is being held up, but there’s different levels of support and different types of support and resistance as well.
It all comes down to energy
Support can become resistance, and resistance can become support. If you’re more intermediate and advanced, I want you to think about the energy that we go through, as we go through this lesson. Because it all comes down to energy when you look at anything in life, it comes down to energy.
Breaking apart this day, you want to look at the energy that’s coming into the stock, the energy that’s leaving the stock, and you could say this is supply and demand, or you could say that it’s support and resistance, but really, at the core of it, it’s all about energy.
How much energy does it take to push a stock higher? How much energy does it take to sell a stock? And this is what we’re discussing. We’re discussing energy, the law of energy.
This may seem like a little bit of a fictitious kind of things, or just to making stuff up, but it comes down to the energy that humans have to excerpt, and this is what support and resistance teach us.
Human behavior is typical, you can understand it, and you can predict it because we humans tend to do the same thing time and time again. If you have a friend that’s constantly late for dinner, chances are they’ll be late still of dinner when you invite them to go out for dinner another week. So this is just the natural tendencies behind the energy of that person.
If we look at a stock, and we’re just looking here at a kind of an intraday chart, it exerts specific energy. And as we get into certain levels, let’s say we’ve come up to these levels up here at the highs, that energy, becomes stronger and stronger, pushing from the higher levels.
The energy from the top becomes even stronger, and when that energy becomes stronger from the upper level, it’s going to push that stock down. Then you might get a little bit more supporting energy.
If we look at the S&P here today, SPY, we’ve had some supporting energy, where buyers step in and buy that stock at 210.28, and they’ll continue to push that stock higher because the energy or the force that’s driving it from the lower level is much stronger.
Stocks are moving into the line or the path of least resistance, if you’ve heard that term before.
We get back up to that 210.60 level, and again, we have that energy or that resistance pushing down on that stock. So we continue moving lower.
We slowly start to isolate, again, at the support level of this line of 210.27, or 210.30. And you can see that this stock attempted to bounce there. If we go more to the one minute chart, you’ll be able to see it a little more clearly.
You can see, we played around that level a few times, we had a few support levels. And is for this reason you can’t’ just draw one simple thin line for support and resistance, I always say you look at a range, so if you’re looking for a stock, I would say, always make a slight little range or region, because stocks, what they can do, just like we did on this, at 10:22 in the morning, it broke down below the initial support tor resistance level.
Here it was supported. It broke down a few pennies below that, and it bounced higher, and that’s what stocks do, they’ll whip you around beyond those price levels, so even though most of the candles or most of the trading was right here in this level, and was held up there, you see that the energy sometimes will break it down and will break that support.
So you’ll get that climb back up, again, it’ll reattempt to do that, similar to here. Notice how this comes into that resistance level at 10:05 in the morning, we get right into that resistance level, we reject it. Now, we broke it earlier in the morning at 09:50 but it didn’t have the strength to continue powering higher, there were no buyers stepping up to the plate to take it higher, so if they can’t take them higher, what are they going to do? They’re going to take them lower.
So that’s what happened. One low week doesn’t matter what the news is. It comes down to the energy, whether the news is positive or negative, where is the energy flow?
Again, we come back up, 10:05 in the morning, reject it, as we get back down, we come into the 210.30 level, which is this right here, that’s our support, we get a bounce that’s an early bounce, buyers start stepping up, due to the buy the deep mentality, we couldn’t make it, all the way back up to 210.60, so we reject that at 10:20, so we reject that 210.50, we reject it right there, and it comes right back down into 210.30, so we bounce right there and that energy pushes that stock higher.
And again, we have the resistance, where it takes the stock lower. We continue to isolate and play with this, but it’s incredible how this works throughout the day, as you watch it day in and day out, and you’ll notice that this happens especially if you start breaking things apart with a one minute time frame, often it’s more computer trading, but as you get into the 3 minutes, 5 minutes, it starts to claim things up.
I usually don’t watch the 3 minutes, 5 minutes to make my trading decisions off of, I look at the daily to make trading decisions off of, but I do watch the 5, 10, 15 minutes, to see how the price action is behaving.
Energy can be exact
It’s incredible to me, a lot of times how precise the energy of the market can be, and how precise we can be to hit certain price levels, so if you can see here on 07:55 in the morning here, where the stocks were playing premarket, we’re trying to get right here at the level of 209.41 and around 11:50 we finally got a sell-off to come back to that level, and they prompt the stocks a little bit higher.
So we got back into 209.81, and we rejected it, there were not enough buyers stepping up to the play, they didn’t want to buy it. So what do we do? W continue selling it, because the force from overhead is much higher, now right now we’re only talking about the intraday motion, but as we get into here the daily, the weekly, you’ll see how this starts to play out, so the energy and the force here rejects it at 209.80, and then we break that 209.40 level.
The more times that you’re playing around in a certain space or region, the more shifting that happens from the buy side to the sell side, or the sell side to the buy side.
It’s like a digestion, it’s like you after you ate you digest, and your food is moving around from one place to the other, to the next stage, and then the next thing’s going to happen, you’re going to either go to the bathroom, or you’re ready to go running, or you’re going to be hungry again, so it becomes a staged process, it’s a process that happens, so here we break down, and they call it a flush, they flush the stock lower.
And then again, we get a little support right there, and that support comes in at 209 exactly, you get a bounce that brings it right back to 209.41 and looks at how precise this gets, as we look at this figure right here, 209.41 looks at the lows of this bar that happened at 11.50 in the morning, and then we come into that exactly right there at 01:35 in the afternoon, and we reject that.
Then we come back to that 209 level to retest it, and we couldn’t do it, we couldn’t break 209.40, so we couldn’t get above it, so we start selling off even earlier.
What does this teach you about energy right here, this point, what did you learn? Well, the stock didn’t have enough energy or force to even get back to 209.40, when it made the bounce at 209, it tells you something, it says you something about the push to the upside for this inter-day, this is inter-day, keep that in mind, this is this shorter time frame.
If a stock can’t get back up to its previous highs to retest them, then there’s not enough energy, there’s not enough juice, there’s not enough gas, not enough propane, take whatever analogy you want, but there’s not enough energy behind the stock to push that stock to higher prices, or even to retest it, so what do we do? We sell off sooner, and then we break below that 209 level.
We continue moving lower, then we do a little pop, we do pop, you know, right around the 208.72 was our bounce, and that was around 2 o’clock. We retested 209, and we rejected.
And then since then, for about a reasonable hour, the stock was moving sideways, and as you’re moving sideways, you’re building energy, people are shifting, from one way to another, whether it’s shifting to the upside, or the downside, they’re rotating the position, and as you get that rotation and shift, what happens? Well, we that initial burst of energy is coming into the stocks since all of this downtrend, we get that slight little reversal to push it higher because there was enough energy, enough people at that value level, at that 208.71 level, that wanted to buy it.
Buyers vs. Sellers
When you look at buyers versus sellers, it takes a lot more buying, it takes a lot more energy to buy something, because you have to set up the order, you are cautious about the decision, you’re looking at where stocks are going, you’re trying to get it at a value spot, and it requires capital. It needs capital, real money to put on line.
The amount of energy to push a stock, equity, an ETF higher is just more, and it requires more energy and force. And for that reason why I always say, stocks typically don’t crash up, they’ll move up, but they don’t usually crash up.
They’ll move up, and they can move in a big way, but it requires money and capital, it’s like pushing a big 500 pound circular ball to the upside, up a hill, or even a car, to push a car up a hill it requires more and more energy, and the further you go, you get weaker, and you get weaker as you’re pushing that car up a hill, because your energy starts to die out, that’s what happens with stocks.
Selling is a lot easier than buying
For a stock to sell off, it requires less physical energy, physical energy from a human, so for example, as the stock sells off, you already have the stock, you already have that stock or equity or you have a position.
All you need to do is execute the order, now you still need to make a decision, but your money is already invested, so you don’t need to use more money unless of course, you’re shorting.
But in general you need to let go of that stock, you already have it, now you need to decide, do you keep t and hold it or do you let it go and allow it to continue to roll over?
For many people, it’s a lot easier to sell than it is to buy, and it’s for that reason why stocks typically sell off lot larger because there are emotions that play a huge role. Such as if you’re pushing a car up a hill, right here form 1 o’clock to 1:30 in the afternoon, you can see the stock bounced at 209 and got into 209.40, and we push that car up a hill, and all you needed to do was release that car, you didn’t have to push it down the hill, you didn’t have to kick it down the hill, all you had to do is let go, and that car would continue to roll back to that calibration, to that healthy state, to that balanced level, and that’s precisely what happens with stocks.
You’re pushing that car higher up a hill, and if you just simply let go, it continues to roll back down, and it can roll back with large forces, and that’s why once the stocks start moving. If they move fast to the upside, it’s typically algorithmic or some significant buying stepping in, but usually most of the time, when you see a crash, it’s not to the upside, the crash is to the downside, and that is because all that people have to do to sell a stock is they just have to use less energy, and it makes it a lot easier than buying a stock.
Law of supply and demand
For this reason is why you have this law of supply and demand, economics teachers they always talk about the law of supply and demand, so it comes into this rubber band effect, where do you have more supply or where do you have more demand?
If you have demand at a certain level, pushing the stock higher, demand where you have people pushing a car, more people step up and demand to help you, you’ll get higher prices.
But if you have supply, and there are a lot of other people just starting on the sidelines ready to get out, they’re just standing and watching you push a car up a hill, that car is going to eventually go back down, because the hill is never-ending, the market can typically go to infinity.
You look at the energy, when are people stepping up to help you push that car higher. And then when are they just standing around watching you? Because that’s when you get the selling action, when people aren’t’ buying, when things are at high levels, when it’s difficult, most people are not going to step up to the plate.
It’s like writing a book, some people wonder and ask, how come I write a book, or how do I write a book? Or I can’t write a book, and they’ll put all these doubts in place, and when you have those doubts they’re just standing on the line side, because it takes so a lot more energy to write a book and get one done, than it does just simply asking about it, talking about it or watching someone else do it.
When it becomes more favorable, when there’s a push on that, when there’s demand, when there’s demand to write a book, because someone is going to pay you 10 million dollars or you get it at a cheap level, let’s say you buy a $50 book for 50 cents, there’s demand or it, you can resell it, then it becomes more worthwhile, that’s when you get the demand
But when you have supply, there are so many books, there’s just so many books, and you have 50 copies of the same book, sitting in your drawer, you don’t mind giving one away to your good friend, and that’s what happens with stocks, as they get into that level, the overhead level of resistance, you just have some much of it at higher levels that they continue to sell off.
Here we’re looking at an intraday chart. We ‘relooking at a chart that’s just looking at a 5-minute chart, but you can take this out into a 10 minute, a 15 minute, 30minute, an hour chart, all those different time frames, and you can see how it starts to work and payout.
The longer the timeframe that you take to support and resistance out, the more critical it becomes. So, you can see that here as I look at the SPY, I’ve taken this out to December 2015, and we are at 2010.
If I look at the S&P, I’m looking at it right around the 2100 level or 2110. But let’s use the spy since that’s what we were doing in the past.
Here you can see I’m looking at a daily chart indicated by the D right there, I’ve taken it out, I’m looking and I see where the energy is, where is the supply, where is the demand, how far is the rubber band stretch? And now we get into this daily chart.
You’ll notice here in 4-20-2016, we get a little pop above it, but then we reject it, not enough demand to take the stock higher, so we have resistance.
The same thing happens around June. People get a little bit happy, things got higher, but the demand quickly rose into supply, people said things are overextended, we’re selling, and we’re right where we’re at. So selling picks up.
In the market, most people are wrong
We get the same thing happening, again, right before the Brexit, things are going to be great, Britain is going to stay in when too many people are on one side. Eventually, you get the reversal, you get the opposite side effect.
In the market, most people are wrong most of the time, so if you see somebody on StockTwits, Twitter, constantly preaching buy the deep, and then you see everybody else doing the same thing, more than likely it’s time to get to the other side.
And then when people are in constant fear, when you have the opposite effect, when people are like sell, sell, sell, and there’s just panic selling, then it’s time to do some buying.
When we look at resistance and support, you look at it and you start breaking it down at these higher levels, and you can see we’ve come into this daily resistance level. Now it’s not going to be perfect, because as we look into certain levels over here, you can see we’ve broken above that level right there, and we hung out above it for a little bit of time. But, we come back to retest it, and then we reject it. We come back to recheck it, and again we’re starting to decline those levels.
It’s essential for you to really realize and recognize this, because the more times things are tested, the more likely they’ll continue to do the same thing time and time again, up until something completely changes, you’ll need energy, in other words, you need volume another big thing that I’ve talked about in the past.
Putting these things together with volume, allows you to see how much energy is going into the stock. When we look at resistance, you’ll also notice here at different support levels, when you break things down, you’ll see that here coming into these swing points, or support, right at that 200 level, or 2000 on the S&P, is where we got that bounce within the Brexit sell-off.
We got that bounce, there was just too much supply overhead that would push the stock lower, the demand just stepped up, and we bought the stock.
The market moves like a rubber band
This is how it works when it comes to supply and demand, and the energy, it’s a rubber band, the market is just constantly moving in a rubber band fashion, as it stretches too far to the upside, you get a rejection on the upside. If it stretches too far to the downside, you get a snapback in that same violent way to the other side.
As you start incorporating this on a weekly chart, you get the same kind of thing, ok? And if you see a significant resistance level, overhead, and you see a major overhead resistance of supply, then that means you’re going to more than likely have further rejections.
If it’s a weekly chart, it is stronger than a daily chart. If it’s a daily chart, it’s stronger than, as we zoom in, the intraday chart. So even though we have some necessary support and resistance right here that came into this stock, you can see, the more significant support and resistance were over here at 210.11, and we did break above it, but eventually, with time, we rejected it.
Could we still go past it and can we build enough energy to break it above it? That can happen, but you can see that how stocks move is they retest levels, so as we go up higher, let’s look at this chart from the beginning, as we go up higher, we get above that resistance level, which now, actually becomes slightly support.
We hand out, we come into it and, there’s no bounce there, but this becomes support, we broke through it, as we cut through it, we move down to the next support level, where the buying picks up, and that’s where we get our bounce.
Now we start consolidating sideways, as we combine sideways, we begin creating a resistance level. As we build that resistance level, again, we come back into support. Now, we tried to bounce on support, right around 12:30 in the afternoon, and then we came back to try to get into the resistance level, but we couldn’t even do it, didn’t have enough energy, so we had rejection on that 20 days moving average, here it would be 20 bar moving average, and still couldn’t do it, so we continue to sell off.
We got to the next level, and as we get into the next level, we find our support, we come back to retest the previous support, which is now resistance, and that’s where we again, rejected it, tried to bounce higher, sell off continues, we break through it, and then you continue to do this pattern time and time again.
As you combine this with volume, you’ll notice that the selling, especially here at 12 – 1 pm was a little more significant, the red bars are a bit larger than this moving average or volume, and that’s why you get more selling, and then once you get buyers stepping in, just like we had these green bars coming in, you’ll get the buyers stepping in.
If there are not enough buyers, you won’t break that resistance level, so you’ll continue selling off, and then again, you get consolidation, and then you’ll get people moving into the other side, and as you get more buyers stepping in, now you can see things are slightly changing direction, we broke above the 209 level right there, and that is just because of the energy, the volume that we had coming in, more shares, or you could think of more people are stepping up to push that car higher.
This, of course, requires more energy than selling, as you already know and have learned. And that is because it requires capital to make purchases, so you have to go ahead and buy the stock or buy those shares to continue pushing hem higher.
Support and resistance project human behavior
But it all really comes down to that law of supply and demand, the energy or just support and resistance, but if you want to look at things at a deeper level, you’re looking at the energy, how much energy is going into that stock, and as you take things further, you can see the 10 minutes, you can see how beautiful these things hit. And all they’re doing. All these support and resistance levels are doing, are just projecting human behavior.
They’re projecting the way humans think, act, behave, the energy, the greed, the fear, that’s all tactical analysis does, is it gives you a map, a foundation to human behavior, because as human behavior gets too far extended, it gets too greedy, eventually people start to sell off, and then, other people, they’re not interested, because it’s such a high price, I wouldn’t want to pay at a high price, so then selling starts to happen, because they can’t do anything else with the shares, things start to die off.
There are more people on the other side of that trade, and this is how it works, and as you take things deeper on a 15 minute, you can see here we’ve done the same thing as we look at July 1st, where we had rejections at those levels, and that’s a resistance level right there.
If you want to take these things a little further, you can extend this line of support or resistance, and you can see how it gets right into that gap that we’ve created on July 1st to July 5th of that gap down. You can see how the stock broke right under that. And then again, today we came into that support and resistance of the low right under that July first date, where that swing point was. And that is because of the energy that was available there.
If I take this line right here, where the support and resistance was, and I draw it all the way there, you can there is that gap, the gap that got filled right there, and again, support and resistance that we just discussed today on July 5th where we had that initial opening trade that it came right back into so beautifully, so beautifully how these trades just came right back into that line of support and resistance.
We also have a gap over here, you can see on June 29th, there’s a little gap to around 205 that again, that we still haven’t filled, and another gap at 200 which is has a potential of being filled, we have some gaps, an as you start looking at things, especially if you start looking on the daily, if you look at, let’s just see here on the volume bars, on the down volume that we had 333.3 million to the downside, and now we’ve moved up on 164 million or moved up on 106 million, it’s nowhere near the 333 million.
Can we continue higher? Yes, of course, we can, but is it realistic? Do you have the volume? Those are always things to consider because the market can continue to move higher without volume, but then, the move is not as real as a move that has volume behind it.
Recognize the true support and resistance
Because that’s when you get people truly stepping up, truly doing the support or the resistance, selling into those movements or buying into those movements, otherwise it could be the shorts taking profits, or it could be the longs taking profits in both directions.
It’s essential for you to recognize where the true support and resistance is. And as you go into these time frames, start looking at the daily, start looking at the swing points, where did the stock change direction? And look at it regarding how big the volume was at that point? How big was the volume here as we change course? Was it to the buy side or was it to the sell side? You do the same thing as you get into support.
I look now, if I take May, the bounce here was on 89.3 million on the daily. The sell here was on 85 million, on the upper side, 85 million on the sell, 89 on the buy. We take things higher, how about here on the sell? One hundred fifteen on the sell, which is a lot more, we change direction, how much was on the buy the next day, 105, so we add 115 million, all the way to 105 for the buy side.
Didn’t have enough energy to contain it, so as we start selling off, we get 73 million, then we get 113, then we get an acceleration of 117, and then you get 125. So it starts to pick up. And you start doing this.
Then again, how high did we try to go on 6-23-2016, we decided to get into those 210 levels, with 102 million, but how much did we reject at that level? At that level we rejected with 85, we also denied with 113, we tried to get into it with 102. 113 versus 102, you can see where and how this is playing out.
Again, you’re looking at energy, how much energy, how much is forced on the upside, how much on the downside, what’s the bounce, what’s telling you how’s the stock moving, how is it behaving? And that will give you the bigger picture.
I hope this was a little helpful, I know it’s a bit fundamental, but ultimately, taking things and looking at it a little bit differently, looking at it just the energy side of things, is finally how the stocks move.
It all comes down to energy, it all comes down to the amount of energy and force it takes to move anything, whether that’s a car, whether that’s building wealth, it’s much harder to earn money and earn your wealth and get to your Ph.D. than to lose it.
There’s a famous saying that says, it can take a lifetime to build a relationship, but just a moment to lose it. So look at the energy, the amount of force that it takes to push things, it usually takes a lot more energy to push things higher because money, especially in stocks, it just requires more funds, more money to take those things to higher prices, and looking at the overall market condition, where we keep rejecting at those highs, you can see the resistance at those levels. We keep refusing as we get into those higher price points.
Keep your eyes open, be cautious, we got the labor report coming out tomorrow, that, of course, can move and whip around the market as well.