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Ep 31: Safety Triangle – The Amount of Wins and Home Runs

Welcome to the Market Recap, it is April 9th 2015. I’m Sasha and today we’re going to talk about the Safety Triangle and of course a lot of things that I discussed apply to life as well so not just stocks but we’re going to talk about that in stocks also.

It’ll be a very insightful Rapid Recap and it’ll be a little bit geared towards risk management, money management and maybe it’ll give you some insights to managing your own stocks, the way they run and the way they move you’ll be in for a treat.

With this in mind I do want to apologize for not doing the Rapid Recap last week. We’re on vacation over there by the beaches and Siesta Key over there and spent some time there with some friends, family and just for the Easter holiday break that’s what we’re doing.

We’re doing some boating and a little bit of fishing and just hanging out at the beach taking a breather and it’s one of my times to just kind of get away from things and just calm down with the new course that we had launched last month and just the market behaving the way it is I figured it would be a good time.

That’s what we did we went over there the Siesta Key area, visited some family and some friends and just spend some time over there and then maybe I’ll share some insights and some photos and things like that on another day but for now I do you want to go in detail in the markets.

I’ll talk about the Safety Triangle and how it applies to life and also really how it applies to the market which is probably what you’re more interested in but I think there’s always a deeper purpose to a lot of the lessons that I tried to give.

You can look at it just from the stock point of view but also look at it from the life perspective. In this market the way that it’s been moving and the way that it’s been acting. I’ve kind of… the way things worked out with the course launching this last month and the market moving the way it is we’re kind of in no man’s land in a way.

What I mean by that is the patterns, the things that are setting up are really looking a little sluggish shall we say there’s nothing that’s really grabbing my attention amazingly. We’ll talk about some stocks here in a bit but I’ll just  give you a quick rundown.

If we take a look at for example like an apple you can see on the daily here we’re not creating a descending trend line that allows us to break to the upside. We are kind of creating certain patterns here.

If you take a look at the weekly we are creating little things that could be pressing here shortly. So you can see here things are pushing on things and same with like a Tesla you know we’re setting up for potential upsides but you don’t know where things will go because we have the earnings coming in.

Same with the BIDU, we have a similar thing going on with on with Alibaba here, you know but some of these things to me they’re not as exciting as maybe if they were happening during a different time. There’s the way that it’s moving, the way that it’s behaving.

If we look at the overall Dow Jones let’s just break down the last few days and what these signals mean and what behavior means because if you’d learn about behavior how things behave, how the energy behaves of the market it’ll give you a good read.

It’s kind of like knowing your friend what do you expect them to order at a restaurant, what do you expect them to do in certain situations. So here the last few days, let’s just take a look here. So this day right here this was Tuesday, you can see we pushed higher and we sold off so we pressed down.

We pushed higher, we sold off. The next day on Wednesday here we pushed higher and then we came back down to almost where we open. So we played around in that range but we kind of went back to even.

Today the same thing can happen but we’re pushing towards a little bit of the highs. Now you can see if we draw this out this was that resistance point. Now normally I don’t look at just three days, I look at a longer picture.

Let’s backtrack a little bit so let’s take a look at how this line comes and approaches. So you can see that if we go all the way out you can see that there’s an important swing point right around this level, right around this region there’s a swing point right here and you can see we’re rejecting those prices right here.

We rejected on there, we’re rejected on here and now we’re pressing against it. We’re not pushing on anything major, no major volume on and then I’m looking at also the individual stocks. So I noticed this in the pattern then also look at let’s say the longer term picture.

Let’s take it out the weekly so this is the weekly so now I’ll draw another trend line here and you can see we’re hitting that support level right there on the weekly.

Now right now we’re trading 335 million shares and we still have one more day to go so we’ll see how much volume picks up on Friday but Friday people peel off positions because they’re day traders and so forth so we’ll see how that plays out in terms of volume.

In general the last little bit we’ve been moving sideways and there’s these volume spikes that little bit concerned me and that would be something like these, right here.

We did have one bullish volumes break right there and we had another one right here but in general you can see that we had some intermixed red big bars or red bearish volume spikes and the action really has been moving this way in a kind of a sideways action.

It hasn’t been really moving in the upward pattern so this is a volatile and a volatility bounce around kind of market rather than just nice and steadies something like that nice and steady. Climbing higher so that’s not what we’re doing it’s a different time.

Now typically what happens and this is another reason why we took a break what happens at the end of the month and at the beginning of the month is it’s fake. Meaning the market there’s a lot of things that get shown to you by the huge money managers because it disguises things it’s a façade, its a veneer.

The reason this happens is if you pull up your calendar what they do is they have millions and billions of dollars and towards the end of the month they have to show something on their balance sheet for their investors and they don’t want to show them saying what positions they’re holding are the bad ones.

What they’ll do is they’ll sell some of the bad positions, they’ll put on some good ones to make it look like hey we’re holding the stocks it’s just we’re not making any money or whatever’s going on. So they will change positions around then the next day flips out or changes.

Let’s say now it’s the second or third day of the month and we’re trading then they’ll put on some more speculative trades and some other trades as well with you know other people’s money. So that’s what they do is they window dress said it’s called.

They really change things to make it appear for most people that “Hey we’re doing a good job” so overall when we start looking at the market, when we start looking at what’s going on and we start also digging deeper into the positions like the Microsoft’s.

Microsoft, here you can see that you know the stock normally I’m looking to nibble on this short and the stock if it gives me the opportunity and it breaks this forty dollar level to the downside I will enter short but in the meantime we’re kind of in no man’s land.

If you look at IBM the same thing we’ve been watching this one for a while and most of the time when it comes to this line I will short that stock and you can see it’s done it multiple times but now we’ve been trending like this for a while.

We’ll see what happens here coming up with these stocks but you can see that they’re really just moving sideways.

There’s not a lot of action going on but that means they’re building cause, they’re building ’cause for the future for something. Now when you get into these stocks when you get into these stocks you don’t know how far they will move it’s really a guessing game you’re just watching your risk to reward.

Me personally I have these projected moves ABCD patterns for those of you that have studied the course or charts and the books you know I just do projected moves but that doesn’t mean they will run that far.

Let’s take a look at LOCK over here so this one on the weekly we have this A to B, B to C patterns so here we have A to B, B to C and C to D there’s one. If we take a look at it another way, we can look at it this way right here.

Now we have A to B, B to C then C to D so now we can decide do we enter that stock short or long, the longs we would’ve entered that stock, A to B, B to C, C to D they would have thought it would extend like this.

The shorts they would think that it would extend, let’s do the red right here. So you have those two ABCD patterns. Now for me personally looking at this with the heavy volume I would look at it to the short side.

There’s my A to B, B to C, and when it breaks right there I enter the stock. So now I’m projecting it to go to let’s say the seven dollar region and I’m only using this stock just as a reference point.

There’s a bunch of stocks out there that you can use as a ABCD reference point, it’s just that I remember posting this one in 2014 we talked about it for a handful of people, but you don’t know how far the stock will run and this run, this retracement ran for 6.9 months.

This sell-off ran for three months so d we know if it’s going to go down to let’s say seven dollars in the next three months or six months, we don’t know. This chart is telling us crowd behavior so all we can do is focus on what is our risk to reward.

Maybe I’m willing to risk if I get into the stock right here let’s just say precisely put that trend line right here. It broke here I got into the stock right there risking 25 cents or a dollar because it’s a cheaper stock other stocks you may risk a dollar to five dollars.

Let’s say I got into the stock I shorted it risking 25 cents and now I got in it and now it’s running, it’s running for two and a half months but it only ran really 2 to 3 bucks, 2 ½ dollars that’s not a huge run in retrospect.

I like longer runs, some stocks run two dollars to five dollars in a day so you don’t know how far these things will run and this is what’s going to bring me to my Safety Triangle lesson.

In the Safety Triangle, let me draw it out for you just to get things started. Again the Safety Triangles often used in business so in businesses where they use this a lot a corporation. so you can use it in all aspects of life and we’re going to apply it to the stock market.

In the Safety Triangle the way that it works is you typically have a triangle right here and now we actually drove to Florida and there’s a lot of people that you can tell we’re really driving quite crazy with the Easter weekend and so forth.

Me personally I just enjoy the drive and that’s fine for me but there’s a lot of people that when they’re driving.

Let’s say where were driving here there’s a couple cars here, so you have a few cars that are spaced out and then you have people driving right here and then they’ll cut in right there in between everybody else, where the distance, the tightness of the space in the car is very limited because they want to go in this lane and in hopes of whatever saving 10 minutes, 20 minutes, or 40 minutes.

The risk to reward is what you’re measuring and most people they don’t understand this concept so when you’re driving for the people that text message and drive and do a bunch of things when they drive they really don’t have a concept because we as humans naturally think we are better than others.

It’s funny we’re talking about this actually when we were sitting there with dinner with our family friend for twenty years and this family friend basically she’s like my sister so I’ll just call her my sister. So my sister and I can talk about her like this because we’ve known her for twenty years.

They basically drive like maniacs and she always says oh well you know there’s a lot of older people driving in Florida and there’s a lot of you know people they just don’t know how to drive and for me I know how to drive, I know and were saying it it’s not just about you being good driver.

The fact is if a ball rolls out if somebody jumps in front of that vehicle and hops in front whether that’s a kid or somebody you just don’t have the distance, you don’t have this time and the space to stop and the thing is, is it worth that extra five minutes? Saving that five minutes to get that reward for that risk.

To me personally it’s not. For other people you know were in doubt a lot of people out there, they’re in doubt thinking that they’re better than they are. So how this applies to the Safety Triangle and we’ll apply it to the stock market here in a second is that basically let’s just say we had a banana peel.

We had a banana peel lying on the floor of a store because this kind of applies to business and then we’ll apply it to stocks. So let’s say you had a banana peel lying on the floor on the store. So let’s say a thousand of those people, a thousand of those people here actually saw the banana and avoided it.

They avoided that banana peel on the floor they didn’t touch, they just saw it and they avoided it. Out of that thousand let’s say five hundred of those people actually stepped on it and maybe slipped a little but they caught their balance.

Then 300 of those people stepped on it tripped and fell. Guess where I’m going right? Now 200 people they actually stepped on the banana slipped fell and actually hurt themselves a little bit.

As we still approach and continue going let’s say one hundred people out of that thousand slipped on the banana fell and hurt themselves and actually broke an arm and finally five people just to wrap it up, five people slipped fell and actually cracked their head and died from slipping on the banana peel.

Now out of all these instances the fact is, is that most of these things are all random you don’t know which one is going to happen to you or to your company or with the banana peel. The only thing that you can actually control is the banana peel on the floor so that that is the only thing that you can control.

Now if you take this to a different approach this is really called the Heinrich’s Triangle. So here it is two million unsafe acts and you got 240,000 near misses, you get twenty thousand minor injuries, four hundred lost time injuries and then maybe one fatality.

Now this can apply to a banana peel, it can apply to somebody forgetting to have brake lights, whether somebody is texting and driving you don’t know which thing is going to happen and all you can really control is that banana peel.

If you’re driving the only thing you can control is the texting and driving, the way you’re driving though your behavior. You don’t really know what’s going to happen and the end result. Now if we apply this to stocks the same thing whatever stock it is whether it’s Amazon, Apple, Facebook or Google it doesn’t matter.

Let’s talk Facebook, just because we talked about it last week so here if we take a look this stock right here, here is our highs, we’re looking at this consolidation pattern going through, we had a break here. I entered the stock long right here but the fact is I don’t know how long that stock will go up for.

Because I don’t know that it can be just like in the triangle pattern, it can be two million points or two million shares or two million dollars, it can go up which is you know unlikely but you know it can go up for a long time.

Let’s just say 200 points, it can go up for 100 points, fifty points or five points to you know there’s a lot of situations that can happen and there’s people that ask me “why do you peel shares off or why do you sell into strength why don’t you just let the stock run and then let it hit your stop.

Well the thing is certain stocks they jump down and you don’t know how far they’re going to run this is out of your control, the only thing that you can control is your cash and your stop. You can’t really control how far that stock will run unless you’re an operator of course.

This situation here if we got into the stock let’s say at 82.15 and the stock is moving and I see this big bar selling off, the energy, the momentum is starting to go against me. So by now after a few days you know if it starts selling off, I may sell half, if it continues going I may sell more of my position and if it breaks my stop right here I may be out and that’s what we did with the trade.

Even though it was only a 4-5 trade, it wasn’t a long trade and I don’t know how long that stock will run whereas we take a different stock approach..

Let’s say ESPR so here in this stock let’s say you got into the stock here this one ran for 1.4 – 1.5 two months basically and you’re holding on to the position for two months. So you don’t know how far that run is going to go, you have no idea because in part you could say that it’s random all you can control is your risk.

This is why you need to be constantly selling into strength, this is why you need to be peeling off shares and I do have those projected moves because we’re referencing crowd behavior. So when we reference crowd behavior.

Let’s just take a look at caterpillar because it’s a simple one to take a look at. Let’s just say the daily, okay so here we have our A to B, we have the A here, we have our B here, B to C and then that we have our C to D.

In between there you also have A to B, B to C and C to D okay so you can see that we have another A to B, B to C and C to D so the A to B distance is typically equal to the C to D so if you don’t know that that’s just simple swing point pattern and its crowd behavior.

It doesn’t always work out, you’re projecting the move to be like, doesn’t always work out you can’t control that just like in the Safety Triangle but you’re watching your risk, you’re watching your reward potential so when you enter that stock, when you enter that stock short right here at this point you know the potential is somewhere around this level.

Now if you took a different approach on this let’s just say whatever for whatever reason you missed part of the move or you decided to trade it differently, that’s fine. Let me zoom in a little bit, here now we have a different approach but same concept.

If you wanted to go short the stock here we have the A to B, B to C, and C to D, notice how right here, here’s our A here’s our B, here’s our C and here’s our D. Notice how the distance of this A to B is almost the same as C to D.

It’s nearly identical in distance. So if you’re in here watching the stock and see it breaking you know you can nibble a few shares here short but if you wanted to play it safer of course you could wait for the break here and then you still have 7 dollar profitable run to the short side.

That’s if you entered it late and that’s fine and what if you entered it right here, that’s a solid six dollars run and people are trying to get in right at that exact moment when it breaks right there at that exact moment where there’s barely any room to merge or to get inside that highway.

That’s what they’re trying to do, they’re trying to squeeze in there and then the stock goes against you and that’s dangerous.

Just like if you’re driving a car and there’s only so much space, there’s only so much space to fit into merging to get into that the area, the lane.

The same thing here if you’re trying to get in at that exact little precise area then what happens to the stock, sometimes is they retrace, they bounce and they go against.

This is where people have problems; this is why you say “Why did it go against me? Why is it doing this? why is it doing that?” Well you know wait for a confirmed break, a clean break right here. This, that’s a clean break yes it went back up to retest it but it broke cleanly and then the stock continued lower so it’s a more confirmed break.

The fact is you don’t really know how far that runs will go but I can bet you that for the person that’s merging in and out and weaving out the cars, the probabilities of them getting in an accident or higher.

The same thing here, I can bet the probabilities when a stock breaks cleanly like this right here broke cleanly, the probabilities are in my favor for it to go short, right? or for it to go lower.

The same thing over here, broke nice and clean. Look at that wide bar right, that wide bar is right there, broke cleanly. This bar right here did not break, it bounced and that’s what they do they’ll bounce 5 to 10 bucks and you know people get stopped out.

Why didn’t it go short, didn’t go short because we don’t have a clean break but a clean break like this one here second day follow-through continued lower played around for a little bit next break right here and that’s what happens to the stocks when you have that probability in your favor, if you catch the run at the right place that’s an 18-point gain.

If you watch that right here even if you got in late 18-point gain and so going back to this triangle remember that you really don’t know how long that stock will last and for those of you that are trying to let a stock run as far as it can.

Take a look at this IBM since 2009, 2009 if we go here to here we had a huge run. So with this huge run that’s if you cut the lows, right? So we got 112 points in 5.8 years. Now the run back here 151 dollars comes back to 2011, 2011 to that point was 3.7 to 3.9 almost four years.

Getting back right here to the 162 level, we’re back at 162 so we were running for four years in just a single day, in a single day couple days, let’s say couple of weeks we basically took that out in a couple of weeks we moved lower and we’re back four years’ worth of gains, wiped out in a couple of weeks.

This is why you peel some off in the strength and this is why you take your profits, this is why you watch the risk. This business is about risk management and it’s about money management, you’re peeling off in to strength.

Alright so that’s kind of my little lesson on the Safety Triangle. The Safety Triangle applies to life so it applies to business, they use it a lot in business in terms of fatalities and safety but you can also use in terms of sales.

Typically taking my business for example let’s just say we sell 2 million books, it’s a lower price product then you may sell 240,000. Let’s just say two million views on YouTube then you got two hundred and forty thousand books then you got twenty thousand courses, 400 I don’t know the next product, the advance courses and then maybe you get one or two personal private consultations that I’ll do per year.

The same concept applies you can apply it in many aspects of your life in the Safety Triangle, it’s really all about the risk and money management. So as you start looking at stocks as you start evaluating your risk to reward ratio start looking at it what’s the potential.

What is it doing, what am I doing and what is the potential run for this risk to reward, where is the juice because you don’t know how far it’s going to run.

With an Apple here for example we have a descending a pattern and we have little kind of triangle action. Now we’re not getting this action right here, we could if this breaks out because these stocks are building and I’ll tell you something the reason they’re doing this right.

First off because at the beginning and end of the month like we talked about they’re basically the window dressing that had to go on earlier. Also we got earnings coming out so here are a few earnings that I’m watching.

For those of you that want to watch the earnings these are some of the stocks that I have on my earnings list and you can see that they’re bigger companies obviously because I like trading those companies.

These are the ones that are on my list and typically just as a side note I sell 80-90 to 95 percent of my holdings if I am in the position before earnings but most of the time I’m out one hundred percent before earnings and then I’ll get back into the stock I just don’t want the risk because you don’t know where it’s going to whipsaw and where it’s going to go.

I understand that sometimes you might miss a large move to the upside but there’s also some large moves to the downside that happens and there’s just no need to trade with the stress, the emotions of that.

I’d rather watch for cleaner breaks and patterns and it’s just my personal style. Now if you decide to play earnings that up to you but we got earnings happening so the stocks also are looking at these earnings season coming up and also we’re coming into the June/July months which are typically slower, slower for the markets.

It’s summer months coming up ahead and with the summer months usually the market’s do not trade as much volume and you can see the volume here decreasing actually in Apple as well.

In the Dow Jones you know we’re not seeing a ton of decrease yet but if you look at the overall markets during the summer months most of the time the volume is usually lighter and the reason for that is because the big boys, the money managers and really people that move the markets, the institutions.

A lot of those guys they go on vacations, they take trips to Europe, they go to the Hamptons and this is what they do and because they do that it slows the market pace down. It doesn’t move the market as much so oftentimes I personally like to put on spreads.

I actually put on spreads in my retirement accounts and that’s some of the things that I like to do for the retirement but I’ll put on more spreads during this time it’s just a little better because things aren’t really moving around a lot and it’s kind of isolating a little bit.

Things are standing still little bit more and when things pick back up then I well get back into more of the shares. If we look at the overall stocks and what’s going on and what’s happening that even though Apple over here is up about a buck here you can see that it’s in this pattern.

If we take a look at it BABA, you can see here’s the descending trend line we’re starting to break here this could be a potential to nibble but again remember about earnings. Overall this stock chart is not very healthy and it’s not one I would want to get into.

Maybe you might want to nibble on if you really were looking to get in it.

BIDU here this one did pick up some good volume the last few days so it is picking things up and there’s consolidation really has been happening since November. So think about it we’re just sitting here since November.

I was looking to go short the stock right here, that’s where I was looking to go short so if the stock would have broken lower right there I would’ve pounced on it short but it didn’t happen. This game is really it’s a patient’s game.

You’re sitting here looking at this line and you just sit and wait and when you wait that’s when you jump in you know 100 shares, a thousand shares, 10,000 shares, 20,000 shares you know that’s when you jump in and you know five to ten dollar run on 10,000 shares I mean that makes your year right there on one or two trades that’s all you need.

It’s really just about being patient for the right setups you know you don’t have to trade every day, you just have to be in the right trades at the right time, the rest of the time you know you’re just going to be pulling your hair out if you’re just trying to over trade and just trade all the time you don’t need that.

We got FRSH, this stock has been holding up really well since we have this break right here, popped higher. We had the gap here, used that gap as the support and it’s still holding up pretty well for a cheaper stock.

We also have Yahoo, you know I almost got in it today but I didn’t. We do have earnings coming out on it. the reason I didn’t get in it was we still have this high volume bar of $259 million sell-off and the volume wasn’t there.

If you look at the picture on the volume we’re only trading 16 million and 13 million so what happened actually is it broke higher but because we didn’t have the volume, we didn’t have the juice it actually came back down.

It was a smart decision there not to get in it at this point and so I was waiting for the volume the pickup and if it would’ve picked up I would’ve got in it but it didn’t pick up we’ll see what happens. Again got earnings so always watch out for those but it really you’d want to see sixty five million shares to really get into the stock

40 to 50 million would’ve been good but for this kind of thing for $30 million shares it’s just not there.

We talked about Microsoft briefly so here again take a look at the weekly waiting for it just like AliBaba just like IBM you know if this breaks lower right here look at these consolidation patterns. The stocks are building; they’re building for something so they’re building.

My guess I’d like to see them go lower because it’ll create great opportunities. So right here if this line breaks the forty dollar level 39.91 great place to step in on the short side.

You got Amazon, same kind of concept you have this kind of flag pattern on the weekly being created. You can see it may go to the upside and it may go to the downside but here we got this empty gap so gaps typically get filled because it’s an empty space but this one’s acting quite strong and with earnings.

April 23rd on Amazon I don’t want to play the stock, it could be a day trade here or there but for the moment there’s no need to chase, there’s no need to chase these things.

this one, looking at it also on a shorter potential so here you can see we have the stock coming back to 2014 highs and its rejected it right here on in January. It came back up rejected again.

What’s the behavior? Think of this the behavior, the behavior of what’s going on in the stock. Came up, rejected it, came up rejected it. It’s coming up again.

Let’s go to the daily here we have the daily. If we look at it more closely it came up, rejected it, came up rejected it, came up rejected it, rejected on heavy volume. We take a look here, look at this line right here we have these lows, these lows here.

If we take them across you can see the close of this bar right there, let’s see. That bar right there and this bar the close of there was right there lining up. So if we go down to the more daily you can see how it really hits it very precisely and we closed right at that level.

Chances are this one we’ll go lower we’ll see it may bounce but you want a nice clean break because if it breaks on let’s say the 71 level you know you can see a comeback. You can see this one pull back if we take a look at the weekly I mean this one can pull back and by the way here’s your A to B, B to C and C to D pattern.

Let me share that with you here, for those of you that are still new A to B, B to C, and C to D the distance of A to B is going to equal approximately C to D and this is just crowd behavior, the way humans operate and like I said most people are not aware of the way that they act and behave.

Just like I told you about my sister that her driving is horrible and I can say that because I know her for twenty years her driving is horrible. It’s just all over the place and I don’t even want to get in the car with her anymore because I’m just scared to be in the car because of the risk to reward.

It’s not worth the five extra minutes that we save driving around and she thinks she’s better, she said “I can text here, I can drive here” we’re talking around the dinner table and she’s like “Oh! I just recently gave up texting but you know I’m still quite good I can still drive and this and that it’s just other people aren’t as good”.

Most people don’t realize how bad we really. We’re not honest with ourselves because it’s demoralizing to ourselves. So if you can be honest with yourself when you’re looking at these. If you’re horrible at charts you understand that fine, then you need to practice some charts, if you’re not and you think you’re better than you are this is where things become problematic.

I don’t know where I was going with that but there’s the A to B, B to C and C to D pattern, it creates a projection it’s crowd behavior, it’s humans the way they behave, the way they react.

It’s human nature that’s why you see these patterns working out most of the time so beautifully and that’s really why you see these patterns over and over again. The more you see them the better at it you get.

There’s one more I want to talk about SIMO, looking at the weekly and the daily you can see this one’s breaking the thirty dollar level, BOM, powering higher, more people stepping in, five percent you know you can nibble some if you want, it’s up to you.

Priceline also kind of a no man’s land a little bit. Take a look at this descending trend line right here hitting the highs. The highs were one up here which started, the second one started here so now you can create your trend line after you got two and then the third one as you extended.

Same thing happened this was your shorting opportunity if you wanted it but you didn’t know how long it would go. In this case for this expensive stock it’s a hundred points. Had 10,000 shares well that’s some good money but you get the point, you get the concept.

You don’t know how long these will go and if you take it out to the daily same thing you can see 123 there was your opportunity stock came up. You can see the stock rejecting those highs on average volume was 954,000 you can see there with the white line.

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