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Ep 102: Reviewing the Health of Stocks + Market

September 15th, 2016

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Hey this is Sasha Evdakov and thanks for joining me for another episode of let’s talk stocks. Episode number 102.

In this episode I wanted to share with you some more insight about the charts, of what’s going on, what’s happening in the current market conditions, because it’s more volatile right now. If I dissect a few more charts for you, seeing the health of those charts, maybe it’ll give you some insight behind the trading environment and what it is that I am looking at, at the different types of stocks.

Before we get into these stock charts, I want you to remember that all of these examples that we do are strictly for educational and illustrative purposes. I think most of you know that but sense we are sharing a lot of examples today, understand that none of these examples are really recommendations to buy or sell any stock or security, it’s not any type of investment recommendation. Go ahead and talk to your financial advisor if you are looking for advice on any specific stock or company based on your own personal risk tolerance.

Before we get into the charts and before we get into looking at the stock charts, I do also want to share with you some quick insight to some of the notes and some quick news and what’s happening.

Quick News & What’s Coming

We did release a Critical Charts video, which was posted not long ago, if you are a member, go ahead and take a look at that, that’s on the website. Also I added a PDF version of the books and now you can pay by PayPal, which in the past that was only by amazon, but now you can do PayPal and you get the PDF version, because I guess some people don’t have a credit card but they do have a PayPal account.

And finally, it’s the last few days to get a coaching session at the discounted rate, so if you are interested in a coaching session, be sure to go ahead and book a coaching session. That is if you want to do any reviews with me, talk one on one and just look overall at your own personal trading style, trading strategy and come up with a little system and a little tool box for yourself. We’ll just ping-pong ideas back and forth on webcam or even share our screens together. That’s just something that we can do and that would just give you some more insight to moving forward in trading and investing.

Now, let’s take a look at on screen and what I want to do is just kind of riffle trough a few of these fairly quickly. I actually recorded this video already once but forgot to hit the record button so let’s do it a second time. Here we are, we go again on the SP-500 and let’s just take a look at these stock charts and riffle through these. Again, this is not any recommendation to buy or sell any security, it’s just some insight to the charts, some lines of support, resistance and things I see within the environment.

Standard & Poors 500

Looking at this one, looking at the SP-500 we had a lot of consolidation happening over here as we broke out to new highs at this price point. We came into this at the 2120 level and I’ve discussed that in the critical charts video for the members out there. This was the key line and the stock market bounced off of this level. We had a few times that we tested this level but it bounced off of those levels and right now we are holding above it.

All things come down to Wednesday when the interest rate Fed Hike decision comes out. Keep an eye out, these things could whip around up until that point, which is only a couple of more trading days. We’ll see, if you can endure the pain, just watch this key level.

If we break that level what you are watching is some other lines in the sand, is something like 2030. You are also watching here at the Brexit level, there is some other things right here from the multi-year levels right here, at the 1850 level.

All of these things are going to come into place, especially if you break that 2120 level, so watch those key levels. Of course 2100 is also another level that’s important because it’s again, nice round number, so you are also watching those kinds of things as well in the charts, but until then be patient and just stay nimble.

Let’s do a quick review of some charts. We’ll just kind of riffle through these very quickly and just give you some insight to some lines of support and resistance.

Apple

Here on Apple what I’m watching here is some lines of support right here, the stock is coming into this level. We had a little pop or breakout of this resistance down, descending resistance line. We had a little breakout and then the stock came back and now we bounced again.

I do see the volume coming in, so there is volume coming in, but unfortunately this stock on a multi-year level has actually been acting very weak and that’s one of the things that has me concerned. Unless it can breakout with really good volume for a few weeks, I’m still more in the caution camp of this one.

One thing I do like is that, if you look at this line of resistance, is also broken because you have this swing point right here, so that’s creating also a nice movement to the upside. That’s apple for you, let’s take a look at Bristol-Myers.

Bristol-Myers Squibb

This one was also in our critical charts review in the past, I talked about a price level right here where, if it broke this price level, you can see a lot of swing points right here, we can see lower prices and you can see right there we did break it. You see massive volume coming in and this stock just continues to act weak.

If you look at the weekly chart and you just take a look, right here was our break. Stock continues to move lower, here is some lines of support, here is some lines of resistance, there was our initial break out. We got to these top ends but then moved lower on massive volume and this one more the likely is going to come into, I would imagine a $50 price range would be normal for this stock, because of the amount of volume that’s coming into this.

If it really gets into some serious trouble, you could potentially see it coming to this $40 level but I don’t know if it will get there, I think value buyers will step in. Maybe with time, if it had a bounce and then got into 40, but more than likely if it comes down to 50, it’ll probably bounce and we would see value buyers stepping in.

Facebook

If we take a look at Facebook right here, we had some nice breakouts right here, stock broke out, came into some highs, market acted a little choppy, came in to retest this support level, you can see that support-resistance line right there and we tested those levels. We are bouncing on lighter volume, which I don’t like, I’d like to see more follow through, although we did get some nice volume on the pop. We are going to have to see this price level to see if it can hold it, so that line right there is your line in the sand, that’s the key for you.

Las Vegas Sands

I like this one and what I’m seeing. We have a nice volume breakout right here, and a nice volume breakout right here. It’s a fairly good breakout on the line of resistance right there, there’s your breakout point, and the angle of elevation is right here, if you look at it, it’s kind of about 45 degree level right there, maybe 60 degree. But you can see right there, nice breakout with nice volume, looks good, nice trend, I would have liked to see a little pullback and then power higher, that’d be nice.

One thing I do like about this stock is, if I bring it back and I look at this line of support and resistance, more along the lines of here, you can see right here we had some lines of resistance and the stock is clearing that now. Here is some lines of support, which right there you had some consolidations and some price levels that you might want to watch right around this $60 price level.

Those are some levels above that you want to watch and as the stock gets into that, peal some shares off. Overall the stock looks ok, because you had here potentionally an A to B, B to C, C to D pattern, potentially. But you can see the volume picking up.

The one thing that has me concerned is the volume over here and you compare it to the volume here. I’d rather see the current volume be much larger than the previous volume, that would be nice. You are not always going to get it, but that would be ideal and perfect. Just watch that, if you don’t have that, doesn’t mean you can’t trade it, it’s just less things are in your favor.

Starbucks

I typically like this as a value play. This one is coming into some nice lines of support, you can see there is some support that’s been holding up really well. The volume is also declining as we get into support because you can see the bounce volume right there was fairly nice, right now the volume is weaker as we come in. I believe it will hold it, but if we break it, you’re probably going to see some things at the round numbers, like the $50 range is the support, also right here you have a little bit of a swing point right here and potentially at the $40 range, which you can see some support-resistance at those levels.

Those are some things to watch and then you also have that stock split right here which could be a minor support but I am unsure about that, it just depends on the price action here. But ultimately right now it’s coming into some nice levels.

I would expect a little bounce here, I don’t think it will break through it, but you know anything can happen. Especially if volatility picks up, you might see it roll over and then it could get into the 50, which could be a nice value buy, 45 nice value buy. Because overall this stock, if you look at the bigger picture, has been moving really well specially A to B, B to C, C to D pattern. Again, could we be setting up for another A to B, B to C, C to D pattern? We could, but time will tell. In either case, those are some lines to watch on that stock.

Amazon

This one, also A-B-C-D pattern if you look at it, we have some minor A-B-C-D patterns right here, stair steps kind of pattern and effect, or if you really look at it, you have an A to B, B to C, C to D pattern but we are kind of getting into that extension of that C to D already.

For me, I would really like it if this stock actually pulled back right here and then bounced to that level, and then bounce from here because that, with a pullback, a healthy pullback, would be nice.

The one thing that has be concerned about this stock is that we are coming into higher prices, it’s at all-time highs and we have declining volume, you can see right there, declining volume coming in to all-time highs and I would like to see a pullback if possible, I don’t know if we’ll get it, but if you are interested in this one, be very cautious because it is at those all-time highs.

Alibaba

We’ve had this one in the critical charts. This one, I know there is a lot of people short this stock. We had some resistance here, support here, the breakout was right there, here is some key lines double bottom, that was created in your W pattern.

The other thing that you are watching is the $100 centric mark was also broken, so a secondary entry point. But you do have to be careful right here near the 120, it’s right around the 118 level, because you do have these overhead buyers from overhead supply that still are interested in getting out of the stock. Keep in mind as you get into these levels, probably right around here, start taking some profits because the stock is still fairly new and you want to be careful.

We do have nice volume, is fairly good, fairly healthy, the 100 dollar price point now is your line of support and then you also have it right here which would be right around the $85 range, So keep that in check.

Cracker Barrel

Here is another one we’ve had in the critical charts in the past multiple times and even recently. The breakout was right here but we got into this range a little bit toppy and if you look right here, here is our resistance levels and that would mean that is our support.

We’ve had a pullback here from these highs and when you had that pullback, you saw the volume coming in, when we got this next bounce, the bounce was on lighter volume, normally that’s the shorts taking some profits or it’s a counter trend bounce, and then you got the follow through, which continued right here on even heavier volume.

In my opinion this stock is ready to set up from some more lower prices, I would expect the lower prices to be somewhere around this range, it can come back into this range or level, you do have some support at the 130 as well, but you’ll have to see how much selling comes in, whether it bounces here or it comes in and bounces around this level. It just depends how fast, the faster it goes, just looking like a Bristol-Myers that we talked about, the faster it goes, the more likely it will continue lower.

Cummins Inc

This one right here, we have a line of support, which now is resistance and you can see the resistance right there. Stock sold off here for a little bit and then bounced and we got into that level, into that resistance level, and the reason for that is because as we bounced, we did so on lighter volume, look at that descending volume, and as we rejected it, higher volume on the rejection.

My guess and what I am thinking is this stock is going to try to play around this range or level for a little bit and then build energy. Whether that is to the upside or the downside, we will see, time will tell. But the key levels that of course you are watching would be right here this level and these levels right here. Right now is kind of a non-man’s land.

Can you still play with it? If the stock comes down and bounces here and can you play the bounce and then take it off at this level? Yeah, you could. You could take it off at the 127 and buy it at the 106 levels, you could do that, but it’s shorter term playing the bounces.

MasterCard

This one I like to look at a little bit more of a longer term picture, simply because it trades a little bit lighter volume. You have a swing point here, some more swing points here, a few swing points on this level, almost a swing point that came into this price level here as well, but the breakout is here.

The concerning part for me as the breakout volume, is not anything amazing, it is a little bit higher because if you look at the previous volume here and the retracements of volumes, it is a little bit higher, but it’s not anything exciting and that is also because I’m watching this price level here, which is the swing highs right around one on one, so it’s pretty much coming into the centric mark.

I would personally wait for this one, until it clears these all-time highs, right around the 102 level. I’d wait for that price level. But your long term support is right around 85. Keeping your eyes in check and keeping this one on the radar watching it for higher prices but it is starting to breakout, the volume is starting to pick up. I am just not convinced yet until it breaks the 102 level, that’s what I would wait for.

SolarCity Corporation

This one is having some trouble. We’ve had it in the critical charts multiple times. I’ve talked about shorting this one here, came down broke it here. We had a little pop on this stock right there but it just couldn’t hold it. Massive selling then again came in, and every time we try to get a bounce this one comes in perfectly into resistance, you can see on lighter volume and then heavier bearish volume kicks in. Then again we retrace right here on lighter volume and then again, we get more of a sell off.

It’s acting quite weak and there’s quite a bit of trouble and if it breaks this level right here, especially at the $17 level right here, if it breaks this level, you could definitely see it much lower on the $10 range, which is really troublesome and it kind of goes along with the Tesla story as well because they are kind of tied in together.

Tesla Motors

You notice some swing highs here, swing points, stock is creating a massive line of resistance areas, we did have some potential to break out at these levels but there is just not enough volume. If you look at the decline in volume right here and then what’s picking up, is the bearish red volume and then again, here the volume is kind of isolating and you’ll see that, the larger volume is always right here, the A-B-C-D pattern is to the down side.

You are always watching how these things are coming into these lines of support or resistance and this stock has some key support right here at this level, which we are kind of getting into. That price level would be $187.93 so $188. If it breaks that price level, if it comes in here, I think it’ll still test it, it will come into it, if it tests it and bounces then there you go, probably resistance up here and then sell off again, so that will play out until it doesn’t anymore.

But if it breaks this level, the key line that I’m watching in the sand is that 150 level and at that point probably value buyers will step in, because that kind of takes it out to a longer term range over here. But right now the volume is kind of dying out a little bit on the bounce. You can see that even today’s volume is a bit weaker than the selloff action that we’ve had recently. Be very careful with this one if you are playing it to the long side because it will whip around.

Tilly’s Inc

You can see this one, a little bit cheaper stock. Here is the $6 range, broke out right there, massive volume, had a decline in volume here as we were selling off big time, another break higher. This one is exploding like a rocket ship and I’m very cautious about any stock that’s exploding like a rocket ship, even though we do have the volume.

We have those lines of resistance right here that it did break, it did breakout, but you have some trouble that’s coming up ahead, we got some trouble over here, I got some trouble over here that’s coming into, and that’s just massive amounts of overhead supply. For a stock that’s $7, $6, $6.35, for it to break out that far that fast, if you caught it, it’s amazing, that’s great and you probably made a lot of money, but in general these stocks typically don’t move this quickly this fast.

What I would expect is, if you are interested in this one, wait for a pullback right here, potential bounce and then see if that bounce will hold and that’s when you could get higher prices, because that’s more healthy. If it just continues moving up that’s just not normal and not sustainable, it’s not real.

Twitter

Twitter is my last one here, doing this a second time. Again, we have some resistance right here overhead, we had a little swing point right her, which is causing that resistance and another one right here.

This one is having some trouble and if it breaks out of this price level, if it breaks out right here and we see it moving higher, you are going to see some trouble probably right here around the $35 dollar. Unless they really create something amazing or new with this live streaming video, but really it’s going to have some trouble. If it does break out and if you are long, I would take some profits as we get into here because more than likely I would say it’s going to sell back off and potentially again retest that level.

But for now I think it’s going to stay under that $20 price range because it’s really having some trouble. Right here just keeps trying and trying. If it breaks it, watch that 30 and then it might roll over again because you have some resistance at that $30 price range.

That’s kind of some of the things to watch out for and be careful of and those are some of the charts. I hope you found this video helpful and insightful and just got to see a little bit about the charts and really some lines of support, resistance, and how you could trade these stocks if you were to trade them or at least just learn from them.

Even if you are not trading, maybe you could just learn from them about some technical analysis, about how stocks move, how they behave and just my thinking and processes behind them. I know I went a little bit quickly because I try to show a lot of different charts, a lot of examples, but you can review the video multiple times. If you have questions please feel free to reach out.

Author: Sasha Evdakov

Sasha is the creator of the Tradersfly and Rise2Learn. He focuses on high-level education speaking at events, writing books, and publishing video courses on business development, internet marketing, finance, and personal growth.

I'm Sasha, an educational entrepreneur and a stock trader. In addition to running my own online businesses, I also enjoy trading stocks and helping the individual investor understand the stock market. Let me share with you some techniques & concepts that I used over the last 10+ years to give you that edge in the market. Learn More

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This website and content is for information purposes only as Rise2Learn, TradersFly, and Sasha Evdakov are NOT registered as a securities broker-dealer nor an investment adviser. No information herein is intended as securities brokerage, investment, tax, accounting or legal advice, as an offer or solicitation of an offer to sell or buy, or as an endorsement, recommendation or sponsorship of any company, security or fund. Rise2Learn, TradersFly, and Sasha Evdakov cannot and does not assess, verify or guarantee the adequacy, accuracy or completeness of any information, the suitability or profitability of any particular investment, or the potential value of any investment or informational source. The reader bears responsibility for his/her own investment research and decisions, should seek the advice of a qualified securities professional before making any investment, and investigate and fully understand any and all risks before investing. Rise2Learn, TradersFly, and Sasha Evdakov in no way warrants the solvency, financial condition, or investment advisability of any of the securities mentioned in communications or websites. In addition, Rise2Learn, TradersFly, and Sasha Evdakov accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this information. This information is not intended to be used as the sole basis of any investment decision, nor should it be construed as advice designed to meet the investment needs of any particular investor. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future returns.