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Welcome to the Rapid Recap it is August 27th 2015 and today we are going to discuss: How to Deal with Major Bearish Markets and Sell Offs. I hope you are trading well if you’re trading in this volatile market or you're sitting on the sidelines and learning quite a bit from the markets.
Now I had a lot of questions tons of questions through the market regarding what's going on, what's happening, what would you do, what you should do, what are you going to do, how did I play the market so there's a lot of questions and hopefully some insights in today's Rapid Recap will answer those questions.
I'm going to discuss some of the exact same things that we talked about as far as stocks go that we talked about in the critical charts last week as well as some of the stocks that we discussed over the last couple of weeks because some of the same trend lines apply.
That's what we'll be talking about but really the core will be just on the overall market and how things are moving in what you should be doing or how you normally trade. Now will tell you as far as volatility goes let's just take a look at the overall market.
If we look at the daily in simple terms here's a few of the trend lines that I have but if we look at the daily and we start zooming in markets right around this point are now much more volatile and volatile volatility is a great thing especially for day traders so if you're a professional trader, if you're a heavy day trader, if you like trading intraday you will learn to love volatile markets.
If you are more emotional on your trading if you're more new if you're just getting started. If you haven't been trading for a long time you probably hate these markets that is because you’re new and you are less experienced and with time the more experience you get the more comfortable you get at trading. The more you can leverage or a take the opportunities that are given to you.
Think about it this way when the market was moving just lightly or generally throughout this region right here we're only going up a little bit a few points and down a few points here and there so we're moving very lightly but you can still make trades there.
Looking at the overall volatility it was minimal. Now in the last week the market has been selling off and moving down and popping up and moving down and popping up. This creates great opportunity think about this like taking out a loan for a house or taking out huge margin to trade.
It now allows you to trade much more without really paying those percentage fees. That's what happens when volatility kicks in if you're a professional if you've done this before you watch things breaking the trend line it's “like give me give me a little more ok wow what a wonderful gift thank you thank you”.
That's what's happening in the markets when the volatility kicks in. If you're a beginner you're probably doing something completely opposite you're probably thinking why is it going down, what's going to happen tomorrow, what should I do with my position. What is what is going to happen with Sasha's position? Should I ask Sasha? What am I going to ask him or what stock should I trade for tomorrow the volatility.
If you're thinking like this that tells me you don't have a plan that also tells me that you weren't planning for the setup. Those of you that have been following me for at least a couple weeks or watch the recent you know I was heavily short on Apple and this bar right there was a give me this was a give me bar right there and a lot of times when you get give me situations like little presence like that you take a lot of those presence and cash out.
Meaning you take a lot of your profits off the table and then you let the rest ride and the reason you do that is because usually these are not one day occurrences when you're talking about sell offs, when you're talking about volatility. It usually lasts for a little bit until things calm down and stabilizes. I give an analogy to someone over email actually and the way I phrased it was when you look at these volatilities segments and you can pretty easily spot where the volatility is.
Volatility usually is markets that trade on fear no rationale and a lot of it has to do with sell offs because we are more fearful during selloffs when things are common normal things move up nice and slow but when we have volatility such as this bar right here or even these bars over here typically market selloff and then bounce-back, bounced off, bounced back.
The way I phrased it was if you have a broken leg, it usually takes a few weeks or a few months for things to heal. When you have a broken leg things don't repair themselves the next day and this is where a lot of beginners really get into trouble when trading volatile markets or getting into volatile markets.
To simplify things if you’re brand new in the stock market and you don't know how to short and you're in this kind of market condition this is a day trader stock pickers market at least right now until things change stabilize and that is because it will whipsaw you around. sWhat are going to happen is most people and if you catch yourself doing this you know you're one of the people. They’ll will try to get in let's just say at this bar right here and I mentioned this bar because it did exactly what a classic move would be.
If we zoom out right here what happens is a lot of beginner traders what they'll do is they'll try to get into the stock over here or over here they noticed the stock is bouncing and in that movement the Dow Jones was up you know four five six hundred points from that point but then what happens midday we sell off another 500 points so we're almost back to even.
It's a roller coaster ride and for a lot of beginners doing that ride they could be up to 1,000 5,000 $10,000 in a trade I don't know depending on how large you trade and then all of a sudden you have a major selloff and then you're back to even.
Now, if you’re trading larger, trading five ten twenty thousand shares let's just say you could be up fifty grand hundred fifty grand 250 grand all in a day and then it pulls back and you're back to even basically or at the next couple of days what happens is the market continues to sell off.
If we look at you know getting in from here to here you're basically at even or down 21 points so this is basically what happens you know in these market scenarios where volatility kicks in and people get in and they jump in and they get into the hype of these bounces so for me trading these markets there's a couple things you need to be aware of for yourself the way I do it the way I trade more volatile markets is usually I just hold on to my positions that I have and then take my profits and then I prepare for the next move the lower.
I'll give you an example of how that works out so here in Apple if you watched the Rapid Recaps a few weeks back you know I was talking about this one and this was our largest position you know where I stood with this and right here you know was your short entry point if you want to play it safe right there was your short entry point so as the stock drops you go ahead take the ride down then after the ride down you take some profits in the strength meaning you sell a few shares why?
Because stocks don't go straight down so you want to reduce your risk when things go in your favors so as it's popping again right here you're preparing for your next move down because it's popping and it's popping on what lighter volume again. Look how much lighter that is relative to where we broke right here.
Look at this case we broke right there and now we're popping here on much lighter volume so you're preparing for the next move down and if we zoom in a little bit maybe you'll be able to see a much better so look at how this creates these little patterns kind of like a circular shape right there you can see. It’s a U-shaped, bowl shape pattern right there.
You can see them, we break lower we consolidate and then we break lower volume picks up then again we consolidate higher break lower so that's what's happening so what do you do when you look at it right here on the daily we have this break this was our entry point that's our short entry point stock moves lower take some profits stock pops higher you add to the short.
If I didn't add to my short at this point you can add it at this point so if you didn't take profits here and you notice the stock rolling over you could reshorted it there. It really comes down to knowing and understanding how stocks move if you know and understand how stocks move you know that you can short this stock again right here because it's coming back on lighter volume.
It is coming back right here on this amount of volume and then the next day we have this amount of volume is just looking at colors and bars and knowing basic math. Again we're popping lighter volume right here lighter volume very simple I keep these things very simple then again we're starting to pick up in volume even if you missed the re-shorting opportunity on day one, you missed out on day 2 and day 3. Right here look at this day 3 compared it to this bar right here.
It is a big difference now yes I do take into account the amount 48.5 million and then I take into account what's coming into the short 68.2 million. I do look at these situations and scenarios so I look at these things I calculate these things and that might be something for a video chorus or a whole different ballgame but those are multiple shorting opportunities.
Let's break the play down again we short here take profits stock comes back even if you didn't take profits and you knew how the stocks move you re-short again you re-short again. It's building you're building your position here. Now when the stock is breaking three thousand shares down to the downside so you get three thousand shares short and now you’re going down 20 points.
You can do the math so here when the stock breaks lower you’re starting the take more and more profits these are give me as you take more profits, the faster it drops or the faster it pops if you’re to the long side the faster it drops to the downside or moves in your favor the more profits you should be taking because now the risk to reward is going against you.
Now we're popping again we're moving up higher do I change my position and go along all of a sudden “Oh my God the stars are aligning”. No, you stay calm because you still have half or 30% of your other shares from way up here, way up here, you’re way up here so you got thirty percent and you took profits over here so you still have a forty fifty hundred thousand dollar cushion depending on how many shares you were trading because you took profits over here at the $100 level.
Does that worry you that it's up 12 points? No, because you're at much higher prices on the short your way up there at the short so now we're coming into this 20 day moving average and if not we got the 200 day moving average for resistance and this critical line at the 120. That's going to create another opportunity to short.
Now that is the play for me if you have a completely different play and you play opposite meaning you play bullish I’ll talk about that in the second but if the stock comes back up to the upside right here and then it rejects I will re-short.
I will add to the short if it comes up to this 20 day moving average and I see it weakening because we're already coming up right here at this level if I see a weakening start to roll over I will reach short again so I'm watching the sides I'm watching how the stock behaves. It’s like your best friend you know how they act you know with their late to dinner you know what drives them crazy.
Here the same thing watching and waiting for that opportunity to re-short right there or right there. I'm looking at how that stock is behaving. Now, if it changes on me if it starts picking up more volume and breaking this 120, you have a stop and you're still profitable because you got out at much better lower prices at least half of your position or 30% of your position you got way lower case so you're always watching your risk. You're always watching your risk to reward ratio.
Getting back to the bullish side if you were the bullish side and you traded this to the bullish side then your opportunity was really on any bounce right here you're going long but you're going long really for a short or a small period of time so let me use the word small rather than short so that way it's less confusing.
If you're playing bounces these are usually bad bounces to play because they only last for a small time frame because the energy is to the downside. There's a broken leg does that mean you're going to feel bad all the time? No, some days are going to be good days and you feel good and then again you feel good then you might have a lot of bad days and you feel better again so looking at it that way you can still play these updates but the big picture the leg is broken, right? So you play it to that side.
You can apply this to any stock any stock that we discussed and we talked about.
We talked about GoPro few weeks back and it was in the critical charts so for those of you that are members check out the GoPro in the critical chart we talked about this one which is another shorting opportunity right there. There was your short we discussed it for a fact. I know we discussed it, there it is volume picking up right here looking at it more on two day because it consolidates things.
Look at it how is pushing and then what happens today we had the rejection and the rejection came right here.
Even if you got in it late right here you still would have been up 10 points and 10 points times let's just say 50 shares, how much would that be you can get your calculator out if you need but simple math right there 10 points 50 shares you could trade 25 shares. Great money for a lot of people over just what seven days free money seven days then you have the daily.
Here look what happens here is what volatility does it sucks you in. Major selloff we have volatility in the stock we didn't have the market volatility up but we had volatility in the stock. Stock bounces 200 day bounces for two days basically and then the rug gets pulled under and we sell off further.
Be mindful of what's happening to your stock and the stock is going to set up for the next short leg short opportunity I love the GoPro great cameras, but does that mean the stock is great? Not really. Does that mean more people want to buy the stock? No, trade the stock as a stock don't trade the stock and fall in love with the company.
Here watch this level that breaks you could see much lower prices but right here volume is still not accelerating as much as I would like for much lower prices so we probably get a little bounce around this level sometimes cause just the markets are little oversold you know at these prices and we have volatility that came in.
In either case look at all these things look at how things are moving. Here’s Mattel good example for some people regarding why you shouldn't get sucked in into these hypes. I talked about Mattel with a great customer coach for about an hour I think over the phone about this stock and specifically did a huge lesson about it and you know there’s a lot of takeaways and if I recall correctly we're looking at the weekly, we talked about the double top over here that happened in the stock and you can see right here is our first second third almost triple top and the stock was heading lower.
I think our discussion was right around this point right when the stock was heading higher and volume was starting to pick up so we had some volume that was coming into the stock but overall the sentiment was still to the downside so if we take a look at let's say two day you can see stock was heading lower and they were trying to play it for the upside.
For me I don't buy into this and this is a great example because this stock was trading over here in 48 20.15 4.14 so right around there. We had positive pop and then eventually we started to roll over so take a look at that how that plays out. What happens is a lot of these people, lot of people looking for that bounce trade just like right now on the market.
They're looking for this April bounce to get in at the lowest prices so even the stock market will bounce right here so let's just mark this so here's our line, there's a line. Let's take a look at the weekly there's our line but then what happens on the longer-term picture we're back and we're even at lower prices we get even much lower so the stock still continues the trend.
So even though we have these pops in between like this one over here, we have this little pop here,we have this pop here, what happens to the rest of the stock?
We continued the selloff we continue moving lower so look at it overall from the bigger picture. What's happening in the market this a weekly chart so that means we're looking out every bar is a week and when you're new to the markets because you have less experience you're not aware of how things look in the future it's kind of like being able to spot the future of what's going to happen with human behavior.
For many people it is difficult to spot that because they’re number one there's a lot of different reasons but one of the things is they're not honest with themselves or number two you know they just don't see the projection of how things are going to move and if your friend who's constantly late to dinner as the example I always like to use if he's constantly late to dinner chances are if you invite him to dinner he's going to be late to dinner again.
When you're looking at these moves right here to the upside you're getting in but the sentiment the leg is already broken or the stock has cancer.
I mean Mattel is a great company but does that mean the stock is healthy? No not necessarily because with the stock it's a whole different ball game you know they make a lot of great things but as far as the stock goes all these little pops right here and this pop right here was weekly so we had 1-2-3. 4 weeks almost popping to the upside.
Faking a lot of people out and then stock continues to sell off that's what the big boys do then will pop up higher and then rip it lower. So what do we do?
Dow Jones same thing stock goes lower major sell-off they're getting out lot institutions this is institutions getting out and you think they can get out all in one day? Picture this, if we have a fire in a Wal-Mart that is packed on a black Friday, right after everybody got in the door if we had a fire and the fire alarm went off think about everybody running through the door through that one door or 2 to3 doors from the left end right side of the store.
If we had a fire how many do you think would get through? It takes a lot of time to get all those people out. The same thing here takes a lot of time to get all those hedge funds, money managers, institutions to get out. What they do well they will pop it higher and then they will slowly start selling more and more shares eventually and then they’ll rip the rug from under you so they while you're buying it they're saying “Thank you thank you please let me out oh yeah keep buying my stuff thank you.”
That's what they do that's what happens in the market and you'll see it happening time and time again as your eyes open up to what's happening on a deeper level and it takes time to start spotting these and if you're new again let me re-emphasize you don't want to trade in volatile markets.
If you normally trade going long and that's what you're comfortable with then you want to set aside for a couple weeks or a couple months depending on the market until things rebalance themselves until you see the opportunities.
Learn from these situations. If your brand new and you want to trade you’re looking to trade to build experience to just get confident with trading then let’s just say if you normally trade a hundred shares during regular markets then you may want to trade ten or fifteen or twenty shares during volatile markets because they will whipsaw you much more and it becomes more dangerous because it can get flushed right down the system and really burn you so be mindful.
Some bear markets I'm not saying that this one would but I'm saying some bear markets collapsed 10 15 20 years, let’s just say 10 years and if you're trying to the trade and be consistent trading you need to learn how to trade in volatile segments and volatile markets.
Now the beauty behind these markets what do I normally do? I’ll give you a little scoop for those of you that a little more inexperienced. Normally what I do is when the markets go down this fast this is the perfect day they are two actually couple days to sell volatility. What does that mean? That means if you're selling iron condors or butterfly spreads that is the perfect time because when volatility comes down you make money on the volatility side with those spread, thirty to forty days out and you're collecting your premium.
Wonderful trade you’re going to make thousands just by doing those and we’ll have the Options course coming out here towards the end of the year maybe early next year about all these Option contracts and when the stock market's popping or moving like this sideways the great time to go ahead and buy calendars and things like that is during those moments, it’s when the stock market is popping higher because now you got the volatility in the opposite favor.
You want to know and understand what you're doing in the markets. How you’re trading based on the volatility there's different trades for different times of the market just like you know there's different ways to react to different types of situations. You want to have a play in mind when you're you know playing chess or sports or surfing or basketball or football. There are different plays for different situations.
When the clock is nearly running out then you have different plays. When things are calmer you know you have again more safety plays and things like that. Right here when you have huge volatility is a great time to sell iron condors, it’s a great time there's sell the butterfly spreads when you have more stable markets you know that's when you do more calendar spreads and things of that nature.
Be mindful of where you're at and if you're new then you may want to step aside or a trade less shares and learn from the markets but these markets like this for day traders for professionals are beautiful.
They are great because they set up new chart opportunities. If we look at Amazon for example here look what happens we come back to the 450. Right here stair step pattern if you were looking they get long this stock if you're looking to get long this stock it gives you a chance to buy it at lower prices. If you're looking to hold it for multiple years, right, If you're one of those longer-term investors and you know some people ask do i do more trading or investing you have to balance things out.
If you're the type of person that's more into long-term investing and you wanted to get in you know at lower prices this would have been a great time to buy if on the other hand you're looking just for a trade also this would be a great time for a bounce.
If or even for the selloff for that gap trade. You’ve got a lot of opportunities it’s just a question of which way you want to go. For me I like to move with the market and that is because I like more things in my favor. Now most people say you if you'd go against the market and you know you're a contrarian and typically you'll be right but for me the way I like to do is I don't go against the grain when I see that signal though I am in and I do it based on the stock. I just use the market as a guide of where we are.
When I talked about a lot of the recaps in the past I said you know since December we’re moving sideways and you know what's going to take the market higher you know what is actually going to take this market higher so that's what we were talking about over a couple of months on the recaps just about every week it’s moving sideways. Either you’re going to have a breakout right there or you’re going to have a breakdown and what we do we had a breakdown because what was going to take the market higher.
We're already at toppy levels if you look at the overall monthly chart, you have to look at where we're at and so what we can do is we can pop a little higher we can come back and as you know markets like to retest things for those of you that looked at charts, you know we break let's say right here we come back and we retest. Here the same thing happens on the bearish side.
Just like we talked about with Mattel so we talked about on the weekly over here so here take a look at this line. So we broke lower came back to retest this level break lower so we broke it came back to retest it broke lower so the same thing can happen right here so right now we broke this level we broke this critical line, critical level and then what can happen is we can come back retest this level and then you can see some nasty stuff very nasty.
Especially if the hedge funds don't hold it up but what can happen is because typically and I say typically because it’s not always the case but typically between Thanksgiving and February and march is the peak season markets usually go up pretty well during that time.
There's more sentiment people feel better about themselves the hedge fund guys returned from their Hampton homes from their vacations and all that stuff so summer months are usually lighter but in either case once they return this could actually push the market higher and what we can do is again move sideways for a good amount of time if things don't change.
They can actually hold and prop that market up higher if things just continue to move sideways so if they decided to do that and that is only if it kind of clears this area. This level it could be that 17.56 level and if you're looking at the Spyders it's really this level.
That's what you're looking at a cleaner level that's what the professionals use but right here this is really the S&P so here if it clears that line and now it stays above it again we can see a lot of sideways action and then you're watching again for a break higher between that level or a break lower if we stay in this level right here if we get into this level then let me backtrack if we come back up here and we get higher into this and then we reject it then we can see some nasty things so that's if we come up and we rejected it can get really nasty especially if we do it on heavy volume.
If we get up and we stay here, we stay sideways and they prop it up it will be a stock pickers game because now we're just in this consolidation area sideways and it's going to take some time after this little consolidation pattern then you're also watching for two things you’re either watching another break to the downside because it can go sideways for a little bit and then break lower or go sideways and then we have a break higher.
More than likely we will come back again lower because right now to take that market higher I don't see it yet but they can push it higher they can push it higher but you're waiting for higher volume and it's going to take a little bit of time to consolidate more than likely. If it does it much faster for example for example if we do some crazy things like more volatility and we just start skyrocketing let's say this next day on Friday.
Let's just say Monday Tuesday Wednesday and we just start skyrocketing like this then we could have some serious trouble and then you can see a major sell-off coming later and that is because we would be going up on air.
This is too fast too fast too quick think about that like your broken leg being healed within two days too fast too quick something's not normal. Something isn't right something isn't healthy so the healthy approach the right approach would be to come up right here retest this level and sell off further this would be great.
That would be great because it would create new chart opportunities it will allow you to buy stocks at lower prices. It would allow you to really look at things and create new opportunities for the future. If we break higher we move sideways for a little while then that's okay because we're starting to consolidate and we're digesting all the stuff down here but you need time to consolidate and that's when you can go higher or again lower because it could be building for lower prices again.
It just depends how it's consolidating, how it's acting and behaving but if it goes up and continues moving up very quickly that could be a major problem so just be careful with that and just don't buy into the hype.
Let's take a look at some of the other stocks here that we talked about IBM was in the critical charts a while back so those of you that capitalized on it know what's happening here was the break. Great move great when eight points hundred shares what I got you some good money and good cash right there we’re popping higher and again watch for this level because over here we have some critical points if it rejects it right here another opportunity to re-short so that was another one.
IMAX same thing so looking at it this way here was our trend line, trend line break comes back retries and will potentially retry this level and then you can see what happens here will it roll over and more than likely it probably will. Will give you another shorting opportunity why do I say that? because I'm looking at the volume the overall how it's moving take a look here we went down 1.5 1.5 and 1.4.
We’re popping or lightly popping 1.2 1,000,000 and 1.1 million so this is going to be re-shorting opportunity very soon. If it breaks hires here it could potentially go a little bit higher and then I would probably re-shorted again over there. This one also setting up for lower prices for re-shorting just watch how it's coming into it see what else do we have that we talked about.
Let's see WWW was that Web group right here we're watching this trend line right there on this trend line right here if you look at the weekly. Here it is building we got as STX I think here at this we have a pop here major selloff trying to get higher but again use this line as a line of support.
MPLX here watch this line for support as well for a break if it breaks look for lower prices what else did we talk about.
LOPE it’s trying to hold it right here just do the market but overall popping on lighter. Lighter volume I don't buy into the move so if you look at where it was on the sell-off 513,000 shares. A thousand shares 373 popping on 251 and three hundred and twenty-one so 373 versus 321, 513 versus 321 and then this one 624,000.
Light pop I think it's just the volatility pop but remember what I mention about this about the Dow jones about the S&P where overall the market is but more importantly watch out how you’re trading things and how your position and if you're new. If you’re just getting started in training this is the time to set out and learn if you have a little more experience you want to trade you trade less shares and if you really have great experience probably you wouldn't be watching this video but this is give me this is your opportunity to really step and you know really capitalized.
This move right here would make your year those moves at the time when I mentioned before that you only need one or two great stocks to make your year. You only need one or two great trades to you know capitalized and make your year. This was it right here the last few weeks right there that was your year these couple of weeks this would have made your year 22 points just need one or two of those that's it trade large one opportunity presents.
Then you go to the beach sit down relax go play golf go play tennis enjoy the time with the family write a book you know help kids go teach tennis whatever it is that you want to do.
Same thing here GoPro we talked about it right there there's a nice run 16 points thousand shares great profits you know for a lot of people that's great money five thousand shares you know twenty points that’s your year that's it that's all you need. Just one or two great trades.
Even Caterpillar here we're looking at this one here if you look at it the last couple young couple of years right here have these ABCD patterns stock again pops higher and what happens to the stock because you're looking at the longer term picture you’re noticing and your understanding comes back to this level somebody asked me before should we go long caterpillar, no.
This is why this is why it’s because it comes back to this level it hangs around here it's a slower stock it hangs around here for three four months but it's not doing anything and then 200 day moving average catches up and then what happens we continue the selloff continued A to B to C C to D so there it is and that run right there at that resistance area again 16 points right there as well.
I hope you guys traded well this last couple weeks ago this was a give me month and this was the one that you know I worked really hard on this last couple weeks on the trading so this was pretty much a major year if you had some experience.
If you're new don't worry about it there's going to be other opportunities is going to be other trades there always will be there's always going to be more trades more opportunities things that come in even like Tesla it's coming up right now and you're watching certain level certain price levels you're looking here is the double top right there there's your double top that came up there is your sell off.
You have these major moves that happen and the more experience you get the better you get at finding them so hopefully if you did trade and you’re new it didn't hurt you too badly if you are new and you looked out great congratulations take your money and enjoy some of the great things that it offers and benefits .
If you have experience hopefully you captured the run but otherwise these things create great chart opportunities and normally these sell offs and things like that they don't last one or two days or one or two weeks it usually multiple weeks the only issue that I can see really is if we do the same kind of concept right here that we did back in October huge selloff pop and then again we just idle and move sideways that's just it's really more frustrating because then you get again until sideways movement and sideways action and when that happens again back to the stock pickers game.
In fact I would rather have the stock or these indices coming back to levels let's just say, if we take it back over here from the swing lows I would much rather have it come back to this fifty percent level which you can see is a swing point right here so you notice that came the 61.8% is right there not funny how that works out. There’s another one for the 50% so if the stocks came back to right here at this $1,400 level for $140 price level on the S&P that would be a great opportunity to rebuy and do create a lot of great chart patterns.
I would setup beautifully for the future for our economy for stocks in general just flush a lot of things through the system and you know move things but we'll see because everybody's fighting and battling on the trades based on their position situation scenarios and where they are positioned within the market.
It's not going to give it to you but if that happens that would be great right there if we don't get that and we get a bounce that comes back to this level which is basically what happened we came back to right around that level we bounced so if we just do that and idle again sideways then it'll be again a slow market for another couple of months something to be mindful and be prepared for very well.
Thanks for joining me I hope you enjoyed this week's rapid recap 42-43 minutes here on the Rapid Recap and this one will definitely be sent out only to the newsletter people.
Thanks for sticking with me, spending your time, spending your precious energy and hopefully you got a lot out of it.
Thanks again and I’ll see you next week.